Nick the Trader Guy
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Backtesting

27/2/2023

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Why Do it?

This is probably going to be a fairly small post, and perhaps a little stream of consciousness, but we'll see where we end up. 

Like most traders, I realise the importance of doing backtesting and right now I'm investigating a swing trading strategy. The backtesting process is pretty labourious, but its better to test to a strategy on paper or in a spreadsheet or via real money. The why is really so that you can test something and see if it works. 

At this point I've backtested 5 trades and so far its not looking like a good system, but we'll see where we get to.

How to do it?

For me, I back test in a spreadsheet, I've build a pretty good one now, which does a lot of the calculations for me. 

I then set up an appropriate chart in trading view and go from there, using the replay setting to see how the system goes. 

My current chart looks something like this one, its pretty basic but it does the job. 
Picture
In terms of iterations, whilst right now I'm a little disappointed with the systems performance, I'll give it a few more trades before I rule it out. Thus far the system is only showing a 3% drawdown, so thats too early to rule it off, I may have just picked a really crappy time period.

Stay tuned for the outcome.

Nick the Trader Guy
​Feb 2023
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Trading - when to sit out

8/2/2023

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As a trader, making the right decisions at the right time is fundamental for our success. There are times where the best decision can be to sit out of the market and not take any trades. To me, right now is one of those times. I base this decision on the fact that we are in the midst of earning season and the market seems to be actively ignoring central bank policy, in short, it seems to be fighting the Fed.
  1. Reduce risk: One of the main reasons for sitting out of the market is to reduce the risk. When the market is uncertain or volatile, it is best to avoid making trades until there is more clarity and stability. This help to prevent you from making impulsive decisions based on emotions. - Which is one of the critical errors for a trader.
  2. Wait for better opportunities: By sitting out of the market, you have time to research and analyse the market trends and conditions. This will help you identify better trades and make more informed decisions. When the market conditions are favorable to your methodology, you can make trades with confidence, knowing that you are taking advantage of the best opportunities.
  3. Maintain perspective: Taking a break from trading can also help you maintain perspective and avoid becoming too caught up in short-term gains and losses. By stepping back and re-evaluating your investments and goals, you can ensure that you are staying on track and making decisions that are in your best interest.
To my mind (and Jesse Livermores + Many others) sitting out of the market can be a valuable strategy for traders. By reducing the risk of loss, waiting for better opportunities and maintaining perspective, traders can make more informed decisions and achieve their financial goals.
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